LED lighting is ushered in by the multiple factors


Since December last year, the Shanghai Composite Index has been falling. This week, the index once again returned to the 1st era. However, the hot spots in the market have not been annihilated. LED is one of the more sustainable ones. In mid-December 2013, the news that the US stopped selling incandescent lamps ignited the enthusiasm of the LED sector, and also promoted the fundamentals of the LED industry. So, is the LED industry out of the deadlock of a serious overcapacity and a channel for sustainable growth?
The support of a continuous hot spot in the multi-factor resonance A-share market comes from two aspects: one is the positive change of the policy, and the other is the improvement of the industry. The LED sector is no exception, somewhat similar to the photovoltaic industry. The LED industry is greatly affected by the policy. The government has forced the elimination of incandescent lamps to bring about rapid development opportunities in the industry, while government subsidies have increased the enthusiasm of enterprises and residents. The development has played an important role in promoting.
In fact, since 2013, the domestic support policies for the LED industry have been continuously introduced. The National Development and Reform Commission and other six ministries have jointly compiled the “Semiconductor Lighting Energy Conservation Industry Plan”, pointing out that by 2015, all incandescent lamps for general lighting above 60W will be eliminated, LED lighting. The development goal of the energy-saving industry is that the output value will increase by about 30 per year. In 2015, it will reach 450 billion yuan (including 180 billion yuan for LED lighting applications). Subsequently, various provinces and cities have also introduced corresponding support subsidy policies, such as the LED recommended product catalogue issued by Guangdong. The above-mentioned policies were gradually implemented, and the LED industry began to go out of the downturn for years and gradually improved. In addition, according to relevant statistics, the domestic 60 LED lighting products are sold abroad, the main market is Western Europe and North America, and on December 18 last year, the United States decided to stop selling the best-selling 40-watt and 60-watt incandescent lamps in the sales market. The market space has triggered a hot pursuit of market capital.
However, relying on good news, it is impossible to attract funds to continue to flow into a sector, and it is even more difficult to form a plate effect, which depends largely on the improvement of the fundamentals of the industry. After 2010, due to the encouragement and support of local policies, the LED industry was seriously overcapacity, and related enterprises entered vicious competition. The industry boom continued to decline. For example, the growth rate of the upstream chip market dropped from 100 in 2010 to 20. In 2013, after a period of fierce price competition, after a part of backward production capacity was eliminated, the supply side of the industry began to shrink. According to estimates by CITIC Securities, there are about 1,600 MOCVD machines in mainland China and Taiwan, and the ineffective capacity is about 600. The comprehensive efficiency of some 1000 units of effective equipment is about 80, which is already at a benign level.
From the demand side, backlights, lighting and display screens are the three major components of LED demand, of which backlights account for the largest proportion, but with the downward revision of backlight demand in 2013, the potential market trillions of lighting The start of the sector will drive the explosive growth of the LED sector in 2014. In addition, changes in the above-mentioned demand side have also been confirmed from the company level. According to Shenwan's three-level industry classification, there are 20 stocks in the LED sector, of which 13 stocks are pre-history in the third quarter of 2013, accounting for 65, with an average growth rate of more than 30.
Need to dig deeper into market opportunities. From the perspective of the market, the big leap forward in the TMT sector in 2013 allowed the market funds to deepen their recognition of the structural market. However, as the growth of each segment expanded, the willingness to chase the market capital decreased, especially It was the early stage of mobile games and film and television that began to evaluate and repair the market. The overall risk aversion sentiment rose, and the funds that were added and withdrawn from the previous hotspots sought to find value and gains. A private equity source interviewed by the reporter said that the LED sector did not have a clear trend of rising prices from the end of 2012, showing a wide fluctuation trend, the overall growth of the sector lags behind the entire TMT sector, from the perspective of the sector rotation, in each In the later stage of the round of theme investment, the funds will carry out the rotation of such stocks in order to achieve investors' confidence that the market's profit-making effect is obvious, which will help the funds to smoothly cash in the chips from the early hot spots.
However, although the LED industry has shown signs of improvement, we still have to realize that the industry as a whole is still in a state of overcapacity. In the face of new changes in supply and demand, the size of investment opportunities will be very different. This requires us to start with new changes at the industry level, to find companies that can quickly adapt to and meet new needs, only the performance of such companies will maintain rapid growth.
Downstream applications have more investment value. Two types of companies benefit from the growth rate and future development of each part of the LED industry chain in 2013, downstream applications have more investment value. According to GLII statistics, the application value in 2013 was 208.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31, much higher than that of upstream chips and midstream packages. The main reason for the fastest growth of downstream applications is that China is the global production base for LED lighting applications. Lighting applications have entered a period of development and the lighting industry has grown rapidly. According to relevant statistics, the export growth rate of LED lighting products in the fourth quarter of last year was above 80%, which is consistent with the phenomenon that the lighting related income of listed companies continued to increase rapidly in the second half of 2013.
The current driving logic mainly comes from two aspects. First, the price of LED lighting products has dropped to a price acceptable to the market, and the actual demand growth rate has accelerated. Second, countries such as Europe and the United States have banned incandescent lamps, and the substitution effect of LEDs has appeared. In the domestic market, incandescent lamps still occupy the main market. The penetration rate of LED market is only about 10. Shenyin Wanguo analysts believe that LED indoor lighting is in the stage of continuous application, and the average increase of LED lighting penetration rate is expected in 2014-2015. The speed is 86 and 61, and the indoor lighting growth rate is 65 and 43 respectively.
In terms of various factors, the two types of companies will benefit from this development process. First, the traditional large-scale lighting companies will use the original channel advantages to accelerate the transition to LED. The reason is: on the one hand, the domestic scattered LED lighting market determines the channel to get the world; Second, this is because the cost structure of LED lighting shifts to the non-light source part, traditional brand companies have a better foundation in this regard, such as Sunlight lighting and Foshan lighting. From the perspective of traditional channel advantages, Sunshine Lighting is more competitive. As the largest energy-saving lamp manufacturer in China, it has accumulated many years of technology and experience, especially with domestic and foreign channel advantages, and many years of cooperation with Philips has also made the company earlier. Integration into the international market. Although it is not seen from the current financial statements that the company is at a performance turning point, the company's net profit growth rate in the third quarter was only 0.69, and the net profit after deduction was down by 17, but this was due to its one-time provision for bad debts. The company's subsidy of 120 million yuan in November was paid in time, and this part of the subsidy was sustainable, so the 2013 annual results were worry-free. If the light source of Xiamen and the light source of Shangyu headquarters are planned to be produced in 2014, the revenue of LED business is expected to reach 2 billion yuan next year, accounting for half of the total revenue. The high gross profit margin of LED business 22 appears in the main energy-saving lamp business6. The percentage point will greatly improve the company's profitability.
From the perspective of expanding the Internet channel, the company has changed the company's production and marketing models, such as Zhou Ming Technology and Tongfang shares. The company participated in Hanyuan Lighting 20.5. The company won the LED lighting sales championship of TMALL (Tmall Mall) platform for three consecutive years from 2010 to 2012, and participated in the South Energy Saving Service Network under China Southern Power Grid to provide energy-saving products and solutions. Compared with traditional sales channels, e-commerce has the characteristics of light assets, small investment, and fast turnover. Although it cannot be said that the company's marketing system will undergo qualitative changes immediately, the company has strengthened the Internet thinking through this form and helped the company to establish. New sales models to gradually gain opportunities for extraordinary development.

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