Demand for recovery of maleic anhydride market is expected to regain upward momentum

At the beginning of August, the maleic anhydride market continued its upward trend since late July. Under the favorable effect of the reduction of domestic supplies and the promotion of raw materials, the mainstream transaction price in August rose to about 9,200 yuan (t price, the same below), which was a month-on-month increase of 8 More than 5% has formed the second surge since the second half of the year. However, in late August, due to the negative influence of coking benzene, weak demand and other market negative factors, as of the beginning of September, the domestic mainstream transaction price hovered around 9,000 yuan, and in some regions it fell below the 9,000 yuan mark, and the prices began to fall. However, based on the expected growth in demand in the fourth quarter and the expectation of the recovery of raw materials, the maleic anhydride market is expected to pick up again after September and form a third upward trend. The market will enter the medium-term recovery channel.
The rebound in raw material prices and lack of supply contributed to the reversal of the previous market and the formation of two flushes. In June, the continuous rebound of coking benzene promoted the inflection point after the sharp decline in May. At the same time, according to customs data, the export volume in June reached a high of nearly 4,700 tons, as well as production-limiting factors, and there was a shortage of available domestic sources during the month. Therefore, the market continued to rise to the beginning of July, forming the first flushing of the market, and some areas have broken through the 9,000 mark. In July, due to factors such as the increase in the domestic production of maleic anhydride companies and the decline in exports, the tight supply situation eased, and the prices fell again. However, the adjustment was small and the cycle was short. With the depletion of downstream enterprises' inventory and the upward adjustment of pure benzene, the market began to rise again in August and reached a high level since the second half of the year. The domestic average price exceeded the 9,000 yuan mark and formed a pattern of two flushes.
However, the softening of raw materials and weak demand have kept the market from continuing to go higher, which has led to a second round of obstacles. In early August, due to factors such as cost promotion, limited production of electricity from Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and rising atmosphere, prices have risen to high levels since the second half of the year, and high-end and even transaction prices have reached 9,400 yuan. However, due to the negative impact of international crude oil slump, domestic coking benzene weakness, and weak demand in the off-season, the maleic anhydride market in the country began to trend downward. In some regions, the transaction price was between RMB 8700 and RMB 8800, and the second time the sales were blocked. Failed to break through.
At the same time, the international pure benzene market has been oscillating frequently, and the domestic benzene market has been unsteady. In particular, the coking benzene, the main raw material of maleic anhydride, has appeared to be weaker, and it has also dragged the maleic anhydride market twice. However, the double-Yang dual-suppression market has prompted the entire transaction platform to move up and complete the process of shaking and building foundations, which laid the foundation for the rebound of the next market.
On the other hand, high costs have led to instability in the start-up of enterprises throughout the industry chain and a greater frequency of market shocks. Since the second half of this year, companies from the pure benzene to maleic anhydride to the downstream unsaturated resin industry chain have been unable to maintain a stable operating rate due to high production costs. In particular, downstream companies are in an off-season and demand is unstable. The procurement plan for raw materials is not continuous, long-term orders are changed to short-term orders, the pricing mechanism of enterprises is facing a test, and the speculation of the market has also risen. As a result, the “M” trend has appeared in the market since the second half of the year, and such intermittent shutdown trend is still expected recently. continue.
With the end of the off-season unsaturated resin off-season, demand will gradually increase and the maleic anhydride market is expected to pick up again. In the second half of the double-fall shock consolidation process, the biggest impact on market fluctuations is product output, raw material fluctuations of two major factors, the downstream market plays a decisive role in the market because there is no obvious demand to pull, in which did not play Too much effect, this is one of the main reasons why the two failed. However, entering the fourth quarter, the downstream unsaturated resin is expected to end in the off-season to usher in a warming. In addition, tartaric acid and malic acid have also received smooth shipments of maleic anhydride. Manufacturers and traders said that the purchase intention of raw materials has gradually increased in the later period. . The third largest pull-up factor is expected to be formed, which will increase the momentum of the shutdown.
In addition, domestic hydrogenation of benzene in September nearly 400,000 tons of equipment put into operation, crude benzene supply may again appear tense, from the raw material level to further promote the rebound of maleic anhydride market higher, the formation of punching and closing forces. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, with the background of raw material promotion, limited production, and driven by demand, the maleic anhydride market is expected to be successful and a new transaction platform will be formed.

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